CEO Newsletter | Africa Inc: Not the United States of Africa

By Samantha Pokroy

What is needed now is something more pragmatic and more powerful: an integrated African economy, shaped by business, built through trade and deeply connected by a shared vision and purpose.

From war-driven energy shocks and AI-fuelled disruption to lingering lessons of pandemic-era supply chain crises and growing talk of the unravelling of the post-war global order, we are entering an era that will reward hardiness and self-reliance.

As of late March 2026, global markets have experienced a turbulent two-month period, shifting from optimism to a more volatile, risk-off environment driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, resurfacing AI valuation concerns and inflationary fears. Even still, many market commentators believe that the full extent of the risk and dislocation is not fully priced in. This is not stability, it is uncertainty.

Investors are trying to figure out what comes next: how far and how long geopolitical tensions will extend, how supply chains will be impacted by prolonged disruption, how AI will reshape industries and, ultimately, who the winners and losers will be.

It was just a month ago that I wrote of the evidence-backed improvement in sentiment around South Africa’s economy. Much can turn in a month of war. A fragile recovery needs all the help it can get and, sadly, the ability to weather these storms still lies with the stronger economies. Fortunately, at the South Africa Investment Conference this week, the fundamental progress still shone through and the conviction of public sector leadership to stay the course on structural reforms that underpin this progress was clearly conveyed, reinforcing South Africa as a dependable investment destination.

So what do all these socioeconomic trends mean for Africa?

The important questions are not whether or how the world is changing, but how we respond to the changes. For Africa, this moment calls for a deliberate shift in thinking.

This is not about building a “United States of Africa” in the political sense. Africa’s diversity – 54 countries, more than 2,000 languages and thousands of cultures – makes that both impractical and unnecessary. The challenge is not unity, but integration.

What is required is a move from fragmentation to connection: a continent linked through trade, capital and supply chains, where interdependence is a source of strength rather than vulnerability. In practical terms, this means building our own industrial base and local supply chains, increased beneficiation of resources and self-contained energy supply.  We need to strengthen intra-African trade and develop regional markets that can support long-term growth, while reinforcing food security as a foundation of both economic resilience and social stability.

The opportunity is not abstract. Regional markets already play a meaningful role in trade flows and can serve as a launchpad for broader continental integration. The richness and diversity of Africa’s resources – notably the demographic dividend of a youthful population – represents one of its greatest long-term advantages.

The rapid rise of AI and automation present both risk and opportunity for the continent. If left to chance, I believe the digital divide will widen further. If approached intentionally, this could be a moment for Africa to catch up, leapfrog even, as traditional barriers to expertise and capability continue to be lowered by the day.

Since the release of ChatGPT in late November 2022, AI has moved from something extraordinary, unbelievable even, to something embedded in the every day, normal if you wish. The shift has been so rapid that we have almost stopped noticing it, but its implications are profound. I find it a little sad that we have lost our original sense of wonder. In other ways however, this is good; there really is no time to sit and marvel.

Many of us experienced a jolt as AI shifted in the early months of 2026. From the software sell-off late last year to the release of Claude models early this year that functionally replace many roles in our industry.

This is not a future trend; it is a present reality, one that requires immediate investment and focus. Against this backdrop, the role of private equity becomes increasingly important.

In a world focused on resilience, reindustrialisation and energy security, private capital is uniquely positioned to support long-term development. Local capital – particularly from pension funds and development institutions – can play a critical role in building infrastructure, scaling businesses and strengthening economic ecosystems across the continent. Through private equity allocation, these institutions can have a meaningful impact on their own communities and the real economy.

These investments will help to strengthen the African economy through investment in import substitution, local development and beneficiation while also generating foreign exchange through exports – including our people whose skills and services may be deployed globally, returning value to the continent through remittances and international experience.

Importantly, private equity in Africa is rarely purely about financial return. The nature of its capital base means that social outcomes, from job creation to community development and ESG, are closely aligned with investment objectives. Stability is not a by-product; it is a prerequisite in fundraising. This makes private equity a natural partner in building a more integrated African economy as the incentives align.

Leadership moment

Yet, too often, private equity leaders are not sufficiently represented or vocal at the table where broader industry direction and policy are shaped. At the South Africa Investment Conference this week, there was no mention of private equity and no representation in the leadership discussions, This is a missed opportunity. With their direct exposure to a wide spectrum of businesses – particularly the family-owned and entrepreneurial enterprises that make up the bulk of the continent’s economy – private equity investors are uniquely positioned to offer practical, experience-led insight.

The question, then, is what would it take to bring a stronger private equity perspective into these conversations, helping to inform policies that genuinely support growth and prosperity across the continent? This is a leadership moment for business and investors alike. Investment can lead the way, demonstrating what works on the ground, with policy following to enable and scale that progress.

Historically, investing in Africa has often followed a “portfolio” approach, spreading risk across geographies to mitigate uncertainty. While understandable, this approach can reinforce fragmentation. A more intentional, collaborative perspective – one that views the continent as an interconnected system – offers the potential for stronger, more sustainable outcomes.

None of this diminishes the role of government. Policy remains critical, not in directing economic activity, but in enabling it. The most effective policy frameworks are those that remove obstacles, provide infrastructure, support investment and align with the realities of capital.

Ultimately, this is not a prediction. It is a proposition. In a world defined by fragmentation, Africa has the opportunity to choose integration, not as a political ideal, but as an economic strategy. In that choice lies the potential to build a more resilient, more self-reliant and more prosperous continent.